Basic macroeconomic indicators and ways to measure them. Transport, % to the previous year
Program annotation:
1. Main macroeconomic indicators: GNP and GDP. Ways to measure them.
2. The most important indicators of national accounts: net national product, national income, personal income, disposable personal income.
3. Nominal and real macro indicators.
4. Problems of assessing the welfare of the nation.
- Key macroeconomic indicators: GNP and GDP. Ways to measure them
One of the main macroeconomic indicators evaluating the results of economic activity in the country is gross national product (GNP).
GNP- the market value of final goods and services produced in the economy over a certain period of time (usually a year). GNP measures the value of products produced by factors of production owned by citizens of a given country, including those in other countries.
GDP (gross domestic product) - measures the value of the final product produced in the territory of a given country for a certain period, regardless of whether the factors of production are owned by citizens of this country or owned by foreigners.
The relationship between GDP and GNP can be expressed by the formula:
GNP = GDP + net factor income from abroad
Net factor income from abroad equal to the difference between the incomes received by citizens of a given country abroad and the incomes of foreigners received in the territory of this country.
The concept of GNP deserves comment.
First, since it is necessary to compare heterogeneous sets of goods and services produced in different years, GNP measures the market value of annual production in monetary terms.
Secondly, when calculating GNP, double counting is excluded: only the market value of final products is taken into account and intermediate products are excluded.
End products are goods and services that are purchased for final consumption and not for resale or further processing or processing.
Third, the measurement of GNP excludes many unproductive transactions that take place during each year.
Non-productive transactions are of two main types: (1) purely financial transactions and (2) sales of used goods.
Purely financial transactions, in turn, are divided into three main types: transfer payments from the state budget, private transfer payments, and the purchase and sale of securities.
State transfer payments are government payments to individuals that are not due to their direct participation in social production. State transfers include social insurance payments, unemployment benefits, pensions, etc. Private transfer payments can be presented as monthly subsidies of some economic agents to others.
There are three ways to measure GNP (GDP):
a) by expenses (end-use method);
b) value added (production method);
c) by income (distributive method).
When calculating GNP by spending the expenditures of all economic agents using GNP are summed up: households, firms, the state and foreigners (expenditure on domestic exports).
The method of calculating GNP by expenditure can be represented as a formula:
GNP \u003d C + I + G + X n, where
FROM- personal consumption expenditures, including household expenditures on durable goods and current consumption, on services, but not including expenditures on the purchase of housing;
I- gross private domestic investment, including investment in fixed production assets (expenses of firms for the purchase of new machinery, equipment, industrial construction); investment in stocks; investments in housing construction. Gross investment can also be represented as the sum of net investment and depreciation;
G- government purchases of goods and services, including government spending on the final products of enterprises and on all direct purchases of resources, especially labor, for the construction and maintenance of schools, roads, the army, the state administration, etc. This group of expenditures includes all government transfer payments;
X n- net export of goods and services abroad, calculated as the difference between exports and imports.
The above GNP equation is often referred to as basic macroeconomic identity.
When calculating GNP by the production method sums up the value added at each stage of the production of the final product.
Added value- this is the difference between the cost of products produced by the firm and the amount paid to other firms for purchased raw materials, materials, etc. (i.e. for intermediate products).
Value added determines the real contribution of each enterprise to the creation of the value of the final product and includes wages, profits, depreciation.
By summing the value added created by all firms in the economy, one can determine the GNP, i.e. market value of the total output.
When calculating GNP by income all types of factor income (salary, rent, interest, profit) are summed up, as well as two components that are not income: depreciation and net indirect taxes on business.
Method of calculating GNP by income can be expressed using the formula:
GNP = W + R + i + p + A + Tn, where
W- Compensation for work of employees (wages, bonuses), including additional payments for social security, social insurance, payments from private pension funds;
R - rent or rental income that households receive for leased land, premises, housing, etc.;
I - net interest - income from money capital, calculated as the difference between interest payments by firms to other sectors of the economy and interest payments received by firms from other sectors - households, the state, excluding interest payments on public debt;
R- profits received by the owners of individual farms, unincorporated enterprises and corporations. Corporate profits include dividends paid to shareholders; retained earnings as a source of expansion of the company's capital; corporate income taxes;
AND- depreciation deductions - annual deductions that reflect the reimbursement of the amount of capital consumed in the course of production;
T n- net indirect taxes on business (taxes minus business subsidies). Indirect business taxes include VAT, excises, property taxes, royalties, and customs duties.
2. The most important national accounts indicators: net national product, national income, personal income, personal disposable income
To determine and analyze the most important macroeconomic proportions, it is used system of national accounts (SNA), which is a system of interrelated indicators of production, distribution and redistribution of income, as well as its use.
The System of National Accounts is an international standard for assessing the main economic indicators of a country. It includes such macroeconomic indicators as: GNP, GDP, NNP, ND and others. A number of SNA indicators are calculated on the basis of GNP.
net national product is the market value of annual output minus deductions for capital consumption:
NNP \u003d GNP - Depreciation charges
national income- this, on the one hand, is the income created by the factors of production as a result of their participation in the production process of the current volume of GNP, on the other hand, it is the cost of resources used to produce the volume of output in the current year.
National income is determined by subtracting net indirect taxes on business from the value of net national product:
NI = NNP - Net indirect taxes on business
Moving from national income as a measure of earned income to personal income, i.e. actually received, it is necessary to deduct social insurance contributions from the national income; corporate income taxes; retained earnings of corporations, as well as to add transfer payments and personal income received in the form of interest, including interest on the public debt.
disposable personal income calculated as a decrease in personal income by the amount of income tax from citizens and some non-tax payments to the state. Disposable personal income is used by households for consumption and savings.
Disposable income can be determined not only at the level of households, but also the economy as a whole.
Similar information.
Introduction - 2 pages
GDP and other flow quantities - 2
Inventory indicators and economic indicators. conjuncture - 4
Model of national economic turnover - 5
Methods for calculating GDP - 6
Gross National Product (GNP) - 8
Nominal and real GDP - 9
Forecasting GDP - 11
Macroeconomic indicators of the state on the example of the USA - 16
Literature - 26
Introduction
Macroeconomics determines the most important economic indicators in the economic space (state, republic, etc.). All the most important indicators used in macroeconomic analysis are fundamentally divided into three groups: flows, stocks (assets) and indicators of the economic situation. Flows reflect the transfer of values by subjects to each other in the process of economic activity, stocks reflect the accumulation and use of values by subjects. Flows are economic parameters, the value of which is measured per unit of time, as a rule, per year, the value of the economic parameters of stocks is measured at a certain moment. An example of flows is savings and investment, a budget deficit, stocks are the resulting capital, public debt.
There is a relationship between stocks and flows in the economy: changes in some quantities, as a rule, are accompanied by corresponding changes in others. However, under certain circumstances, stocks and flows can change independently of each other.
The most important category of macroeconomic accounting is the system of national accounts (SNA). The SNA is a system for organizing information about macroeconomic processes, in this sense it is a national accounting within the country as a whole.
GDP and other flow quantities
The most important macroeconomic indicator is the gross domestic product (GDP). GDP is an indicator of national income statistics in the system of national accounts; expresses the total value of final goods and services produced in the territory of a given country, in market prices. In its in-kind form, GDP is a set of items and services used during a given year for consumption and accumulation. Gross domestic product is closely related to gross national product.
Gross output is the value of all goods and services produced in an economy over a given period of time. Gross output includes absolutely all goods produced in the economy, including those intended for the production of other goods and services. The latter constitute intermediate consumption, as opposed to final consumption.
The level of gross output, which is provided under conditions of full employment, is called the level of natural output.
Gross national product ( GNP) is the value of all final goods and services produced in the economy over a certain period of time. GNP, in contrast to gross output, is cleared of intermediate consumption. How double counting is avoided in practice will be discussed below.
Distinguish between gross national product and gross domestic product ( GDP). GNP is GDP minus the amount of value added created in the territory of the country using foreign factors of production, plus the amount of value added created abroad using factors owned by the citizens of this country.
net national product ( CHNP) is GNP minus capital consumption charge (depreciation). The NNP indicator has a significant drawback: it contains distortions that the state introduces into the structure of market prices. Without government intervention, the sum of the market prices of all goods is decomposed without a remainder into the factor incomes of households. However, the state, by introducing indirect taxes, on the one hand, and providing subsidies to firms, on the other, actually contributes to overestimation of market prices in the first case and understatement in the second.
national income ( y) is the net product measured in factor prices. NI is NNP minus indirect taxes plus subsidies.
The level of national income that is provided in conditions of full employment is called the national income of full employment ( yF).
The income that remains at the disposal of households, that is, income after taxes, is disposable income ( yv) households.
Flow values include consumption expenditures ( FROM), savings ( S), investments ( I), state procurements ( G), taxes ( T), export ( E), import ( Z) and some other important indicators.
Inventory indicators and economic conditions indicators
Property (assets) - any source of legal unearned income. Property is treated as real assets, for example, real capital ( To), and financial assets (stocks, bonds), in addition, allocate property rights and intellectual property.
Portfolio of assets - a set of assets owned by an economic entity.
National wealth is the total assets owned by households, firms and the state.
Real money (cash) balances - a stock of means of payment that an economic entity wants to keep in the form of cash.
State economic conjuncture reflect the following indicators:
Consequently,
GDP deflator (P) = nominal GDP(PQ)/ real GDP(Q)
The GDP deflator measures the intensity of inflation or the reverse process - deflation. If the price index is greater than 1, then GDP has deflated; if the price index is less than 1, then inflation has occurred.
The GDP deflator takes into account the prices of all goods and services produced in the country. The deflator does not take into account the prices of imported goods. The deflator allows for changes in the set of goods and services in accordance with changes in the composition of GDP.
Macroeconomic theory uses various price indices to calculate real GDP.
Consumer price index (CPI), which uses a fixed set of goods (“consumer basket”). Laspeyras index IL = p1i q0i / p0i q0i, where q0i is the quantity of goods and services produced in the base year, p0i are the prices of goods and services in the base year, p1i are the prices of goods and services in the current year. The CPI reflects only the prices of goods purchased by households. The CPI takes into account the prices of imported goods.
Producer price index (PPI), where the quantities of goods and services produced in the current year are taken as price weights. Paasche index IP = p1i q1i / p0 q1i, where q1i is the quantity of goods and services in the current year. The GDP deflator is the Paasche index.
Recently, it has been widely used Fisher index, which is the geometric mean of the Laspeyras and Paasche indices. Ip = IL Ip
Forecasting GDP.
Estimating the likely level of gross national product (GNP) is the starting point for determining a long-term forecast of economic growth, as it is the most comprehensive measure of economic growth that is universally accepted.
In the US, for example, GNP forecasting is carried out by organizations such as the National Planning Association, the Conference Board, and the Department of Commerce, which have rich experience in forecasting major macroeconomic indicators. The study of this experience made it possible to describe a certain logical sequence of stages in the development of a GNP forecast and the relationship of the most important macroeconomic indicators.
Thus, forecasting GNP is a process divided into 3 stages, within which the level of GNP and the relationship with other important indicators are determined:
Stage 1 - the constituent components of GNP;
Stage 2 - use of labor force;
· Stage 3 - compensation, profits and prices.
The sequence of stages in developing a forecast and the relationship of macroeconomic variables is clearly shown in Scheme 1.
Forecasting GNP and other critical macroeconomic variables should start with "exogenous" variables - whose behavior is weakly related to the current development of the economy - and move on to "endogenous" variables, whose behavior is largely dependent on everything else.
Thus, Stage 1 begins with the calculation of exports and government spending, the initial estimates of which can be made on the basis of external sources. In addition, in the United States, for example, the Commerce Department provides fairly accurate overviews of capital investment plans and information on the initial cost of capital stock for non-residents.
A short-term estimate of state and local government spending on goods and services can be successfully obtained based on the study of time series and changes in inventories.
The medium-term forecast of household consumer spending on durable goods (RDM) can be analyzed and provide a rough estimate of the frequency and amplitude of the phase of the current business cycle. These projections are subject to further revision in light of expected future financial conditions and other changes.
Finally, some additional external information can be used to develop a forecast of imports and consumer spending on essential goods and services.
Combining these steps, an initial estimate of GNP is produced, which is then used to justify the forecasts of constant and variable capital. If these predictive calculations differ significantly, then the whole process of approvals and recalculations can be repeated until the logical sequence of the phenomena under consideration is established.
This continuous process of repetition allows the logic of the forecasting process to be insured against error, both in an economic sense and in terms of quantitative calculations throughout all stages of forecasting.
Unemployment and productivity
Compared to the first stage, forecasting unemployment and productivity is relatively easy. However, there may be a situation where, on a purely intuitive level, questions may arise related to the predictions of variables by the predictions of the 1st stage. And then you will need to turn to the previous steps.
Compensation, profits and prices
Combining the "real" forecast with the "nominal" one, compensations, profits and prices are considered as the phase of forecasting that requires the most careful attention. Namely, the decisions made on real expenditures at the 1st stage directly depend on the level of inflation. The results of the 3rd stage will probably need other ways of interconnection with the preliminary forecasts of the previous stages. In particular, the nominal GNP forecast is closely related to the assessment of the future course of monetary policy, which is the key to unraveling what financial conditions in the economy are expected to be like. They will have a significant impact on consumer spending on durable goods.
The stages of development of GNP discussed above and clearly presented in the diagram, begin with the definition of real GNP and then move towards financial conditions, as the most likely path for making decisions about production, sales in non-financial organizations. Financial institutions and treasury corporations will benefit from the results once the nominal GNP components are developed, combined with monetary policy and financial conditions, price-adjusted, will revert to real GNP as a residual. In general, the rule of thumb is: focus your attention on what worries you the most, or what you know best.
The nature of some of the iterative procedures can be illustrated in terms of relationships with other variables that are depicted in the diagram.
Consider the procedure for determining the consumer spending of the population and compensation for wages.
Personal consumer spending of the population.
The theory of consumer behavior is well studied: real consumer spending on services and essential goods (RCO) depends on their past value and income. But even economic theory cannot determine whether the impact of inflation will be positive or negative, a number of empirical observations suggest that inflation greatly reduces consumption.
The theory has not yet determined which empirical value of income is the most appropriate. In the practice of forecasting, such an accessible indicator as GNP is most often used - a measure of income generated. This allows us to write the following equation:*
PCOt = -71.8 + 0.99 PCOt-1 + 0.09 GNPt +0.03 GNPt-1 - 3.7% ΔCPIt (1)
The RSO forecast is based on preliminary calculations of "explanatory" variables located on the right side of the equation. As a rule, the number of explanatory variables includes, in addition to PCO, other previously predicted variables (in our case, GNP, CPI). The best place to start is with easily developed projections that are developed and published by official organizations such as the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) in the USA. If the forecast for GNP growth is 2.2% per year, and the consumer price index (CPI) is 7.5%, then as a result of solving equation (1), PCO (consumer spending on essential goods and services) will increase by 4.1% in the forecast year.
However, the equation does not take into account external factors that can have a significant impact on the deviation of real data from the forecast in quarterly observations.
Labor compensation.
The growth of compensation for work (%ΔCOMP) depends on inflation (%?CPI) and changes in the state of the labor market, which ultimately affects the change in the level of employment, ?UR. Based on more than 20 years of annual data, the following equation was calculated:
%∆COMPt = 2.78 + 0.5%∆CPIt + 0.24%∆CPIt-1 - 0.∆URt
Thus, the macroeconomic forecast is a logical sequence for the development of the main macroeconomic indicators, between which there is a causal relationship. The quality of forecasts obtained on the basis of such econometric models largely depends on the methods of developing macroeconomic variables:
The equation was built on real data of RSO and GNP per 1 inhabitant. Using the population for the forecast period, these indicators can be turned into the necessary forecast macroeconomic aggregates.
System of National Accounts
On the basis of GDP, national accounts indicators are calculated, which are widely used in economic theory and statistics. The system of national accounts links together the most important economic indicators - the volume of output of goods and services, the total income and expenses of society. The SNA is a modern system for collecting and processing information and is used in almost all countries for macroeconomic analysis of a market economy. It allows you to visualize the GDP (GNP) at all stages of its movement, i.e., production, distribution, redistribution and final use. Its indicators reflect the structure of the market economy, institutions and mechanisms of functioning. The use of the SNA is necessary for conducting an effective macroeconomic policy of the state, economic forecasting, and for international comparisons of national income.
Accounts (distinguish two sides: resources and use) are used to record economic transactions carried out by business entities or institutional units.
Institutional units are grouped by sectors of the economy (institutional sectors). The following sectors are distinguished for structuring the domestic economy:
Non-financial enterprises (non-financial corporations or quasi-corporations);
Financial institutions (financial corporations or quasi-corporations);
Government institutions (public administration);
In the United States, GNP takes into account final goods and services, i.e., GNP includes only such products that either leave the production process forever, entering public consumption, or return to the sphere of production as investment goods. Raw materials, semi-finished products and auxiliary materials are not taken into account. GNP includes the balance of foreign trade operations with other countries. For balance purposes, GNP does not include part of the product produced by US citizens outside the country, and the product created in the US by non-US citizens is not taken into account. In addition, the GNP includes a net inflow of income as the sum of profits, dividends and interest on capital invested abroad, rent payments.
Initially, GNP in the United States was calculated in actual, current prices, which distorted the measurement of output due to the inflationary process affecting prices. The dynamics of production in its pure form is shown by GNP at constant prices of the base year (every 10-15 years a new base year is determined). GNP at constant prices increases noticeably less than at current prices. Thus, the average annual growth rate of GNP at current prices in the United States in years. amounted to 9.8%, while the growth rate of real GNP for the same period was 2.8%. The discrepancy between these indicators is explained by inflation. In the United States, the Presidential Economic Council is counting on potential GNP, which shows the production capabilities of the US economy, takes into account the country's fully utilized labor force. This approach allows us to evaluate the effectiveness of the domestic economic policy of the American government and, above all, employment policy. Since actual unemployment often exceeds the so-called natural level of 6-7% of the active population, the potential GNP is much lower than the actual one, and this gap tends to increase. In 1955, GNP data practically coincided, in the early 1970s the gap was $60 billion, and in the early 1980s it surpassed the $250 billion mark.
Let's take a quick look at the above main summary accounts used in the SNA:
a) the products and services account serves to reflect the formation of resources of products and services through their production and imports and their use for final consumption, accumulation, export;
b) the production account records transactions related to the production process. At the same time, production activities cover the activities of enterprises, organizations and individuals, both in the field of material production and in the field of intangible services;
c) the income generation account reflects distribution transactions that are directly related to the production process, which lead to the formation of primary incomes of its participants: wages, net taxes on production, gross profits of enterprises and mixed incomes of the population;
d) the expense distribution account reflects the total amount of income received and transferred by economic units as a result of production activities, from property, as well as as a result of redistribution processes. In the new UN SNA, this account is divided into two accounts: appropriation of primary income and secondary distribution of income;
e) the use of disposable income account reflects the final consumption expenditures of households, state institutions and non-state non-profit (public ) organizations, and the remainder of disposable income representing gross savings;
f) the capital cost account shows the formation of resources for capital costs and their use for the accumulation of fixed assets and material working capital, the acquisition of land and intangible assets. The difference between the sum of resources and use characterizes the final financial result of economic activity in a given period.
Foreign economic activity is supposed to be covered by three accounts: current operations (movement of products, services, income), capital expenditures (movement of capital) and financial account (change in financial assets and liabilities.
Analysis of US macroeconomic indicators.
Real gross national product- the value of the gross national product in monetary terms, adjusted for inflation.
Thus, real GNP most plausibly reflects the dynamics of changes in the country's economic potential. The direction of movement of US real GNP is not very diverse, since the main direction is growth. The constant increase in real GNP, as well as most other indicators, is almost a hallmark of the US economy.
But, nevertheless, even such a giant as the United States, there were recessions, and quite significant ones, in the dynamics of real GNP. The reasons for these declines can be determined based on two basic sciences: “economics” and “world history”. Knowledge of the first science is vital to analysis; knowledge of the second one will help a professional economist most accurately and in detail explain the reasons for the analyzed change (or, which is also likely, stagnation), because without knowing the economic and political reasons that caused the change in the macroeconomic indicator, it is very difficult to understand the dynamics of its change.
So, after the economic crisis of the years, the US economy began to develop at a very rapid pace for the simple reason that people, tired of constant unemployment, clutched at any job, even with a small pay. In addition, the risk of losing their jobs again forced people to do their job not only as efficiently as possible, but also as quickly as possible. The scientific and technological revolution, which received the greatest distribution and development in those years in the United States, also played a significant role.
Roosevelt's reforms played a significant role in overcoming both the crisis itself and its consequences. The first measures of the president were the stabilization of the banking system and the organization of assistance to the unemployed. The Law on the Restoration of Industry consisted of three parts. The first part provided for the introduction of "codes of fair competition". They covered 95% of US industry. It was a forced restriction of competition. The second section of the law regulated relations between entrepreneurs and workers. The third part of anti-crisis measures provided for large allocations for public works and the construction of state industrial, military and other facilities. These measures not only stabilized the situation, but also stimulated growth.
Because of these factors, labor productivity grew, almost exponentially, and, accordingly, real GNP grew along with it.
Even the outbreak of the Second World War, and with it a significant increase in military spending, did not stop the growth of real GNP. This is due to the fact that the population was not fully engaged in the production of material goods, and thus it was possible to painlessly increase the number of people employed in military production without reducing the production of consumer goods. At the same time, the USSR, for example, could no longer increase the production of military equipment and technology without reducing the production of consumer goods, since all human resources were occupied. This explains the shortage of industrial and food products in the USSR during the Great Patriotic War. The United States, by the way, found itself in a similar situation during the Vietnam War, when the American public first learned what a deficit is.
The growth of real US GNP stopped in 1944. When the growth of labor productivity stopped, deductions from the budget increased in areas that did not generate income, such as: attempts to build spacecraft that had begun; research in the military sphere, in particular deductions for the study of atomic processes; interest-free subsidies to allies, etc. After 1945, under the Marshall Plan, cash subsidies to allies and former adversaries increased significantly. The confrontation with the USSR that began had a negative impact on the state budget of the United States due to the fact that, in addition to increasing military spending on the maintenance of its army and research in the field of weapons, it was also necessary to allocate huge sums for the maintenance of the armies of allies and states hostile to the USSR and bordering on its territory .
The growth of real GNP began only in 1957 and was not interrupted any more. This is due not only to the end of military conflicts in Korea and Vietnam and, accordingly, to a reduction in the cost of maintaining a huge army, but also to an increase in labor productivity, the cause of which was the beginning of the “baby boom”. "Baby-boom" was the reason for the increased consumption, since over the period. The population of the United States grew at an accelerated pace, and consumption increased accordingly.
However, with the transition of the US economy to the phase of post-industrial development (this happened approximately in 1999), labor productivity ceased to play a decisive role in the formation of real GNP, despite the fact that it remained quite significant. The growth in consumption of goods subsequently led to the fact that the US balance became negative, and, first of all, not because of the lag of industry behind the needs of the population, but because of a very tangible drop in exports.
The US economy presented a complex and ambiguous picture.
In the 1970s and early 1980s, the United States experienced crises comparable in scale to the crisis of 29-30. For the first time, structural crises were added to the cyclical crises of overproduction - raw materials, energy, economic. For the first time in peacetime, the rate of development of the inflationary process was expressed in double digits. Characteristic (especially since 74-75) was a significant slowdown in economic growth, as well as a slowdown and even cessation of the growth of social labor productivity.
If in the years GNP growth rates averaged 3.9, then in 1 only 1.9%, and labor productivity in 73-80. did not grow at all. Against the backdrop of these severe upheavals, the crisis of the existing system of state-monopoly regulation of the economy manifested itself especially clearly. The weakening of economic positions in the world capitalist system continued. There was an absolute decline in real incomes.
The fall in confidence in the dollar and the exodus forced the US government to abandon the exchange of its currency for gold and devalue it in 1974. Collapsed designed in 1944. Bretton Woods gold-dollar standard
An ongoing period of currency turmoil has begun, in which the US is taking advantage of the dollar's continued dominance to financially exploit the world, and to directly damage the economic positions of its competitors.
Early 70s. It was also marked by a radical break in price proportions on the world market - a change in the ratio of prices for finished products and raw materials in favor of the latter. This breakdown was based on the crisis of the neo-colonial system of exploitation of the natural resources of developing countries, combined with the monopolistic price strategy of the largest raw material TNCs. At the same time, in just 2 years (), world prices for oil and raw materials increased 4.5-5 times, for grain - 2.5 times, for metals and ores - more than 1.5 times. As a result, the United States was forced to significantly increase the cost of importing commodities. An additional stimulus was given to the development of the inflationary process. In the long term, the country faced the task of restructuring the economy in accordance with the new structure of world prices, primarily in accordance with a sharp increase in the real level of world oil prices (by 6.5 times over the years).
Structural resource and energy crises accelerated the onset and aggravated the severity of the cyclical economic crisis of the years, which turned out to be the most destructive in the entire post-war period. The fall in industrial production reached 10.3%, and the duration - 16 months. This was also facilitated by a never-before-seen acceleration in price growth, despite the reduction in production. In 1974, the inflation rate was 10%. Records for the post-war crises were a 27.6% fall in capital investment 9 over the years, an increase in unemployment (up to 8% of the labor force), and the number of bankruptcies in industry and credit. A sharp 5% drop in real wages helped set another record in terms of falling consumer demand. American exports fell by 2.6% in 1975, which further exacerbated the internal economic crisis.
The special depth of the crisis of 74-75, the simultaneous existence of recession and inflation (stagflation), interweaving with a number of structural crises led to an unusually long period of recovery of the pre-crisis level in the US economy
The new cyclical crisis that began in 1980 broke all the records of its predecessor - in terms of the depth and overall duration of the decline in industrial production (12.4% and 20 months), the scale of unemployment (9.7% of the workforce), the reduction in personal consumption and the scope of bankruptcies . The growing destructive power of the crises of overproduction in the United States convincingly testifies to the impotence of capitalism to overcome the objective process of the deepening of its general crisis.
The crisis of The United States shared many of the features that have characterized the cyclical crises of the capitalist economy since the 1970s. This is primarily a stagflationary nature combined with long-term structural crises. Just as in the mid-1970s, reproduction during the crisis was additionally destroyed by a sharp jump in fuel and energy prices, the "oil shock" of 1979. The greatest difficulties fell on energy-intensive industries - ferrous and non-ferrous metallurgy, the chemical industry, and also the automotive industry. As in the previous crisis, the decline in industrial production was exacerbated by a sharp decline in exports - by 11% in 1y.
An additional factor in the aggravation of socio-economic contradictions in the United States was the emerging in the 1970s. the second stage of the deployment of the scientific and technological revolution. Science-intensive industries, the rocket and space industry, and pharmaceuticals are rapidly developing. At the same time, a number of "old" industries - metallurgical, textile, shipbuilding and others - are in a state of depression or crisis. The essentially progressive restructuring of the US economy brings with it an increase in economic instability and an increase in unemployment. Beginning in 1983, the US economy, having overcome the depression, entered another phase of recovery.
Literature
1. . Economic theory. "Vlados", IMPE them. Griboedova, 2002
2. "The American State on the Eve of the 21st Century"
3. Samuelson "Economics"
4. Small Encyclopedic Dictionary. M., 1997
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State regulation of interbudgetary relations of the Russian model of federalism
or abstract of the dissertation for the degree of candidate of economic sciences, specialties 08.00.05 - Economics and management of the national economy (macroeconomics) and 08.00.10 - Finance, money circulation and credit FGOU HPE "Financial Academy under the Government of the Russian Federation" |
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1.5 Main macroeconomic indicators and methods of their measurement.
The SNA is a system of macroeconomic indicators that reflect the most important and general aspects of economic development in their interconnection and interaction. The main indicators of national accounts are: gross national product (GNP), gross domestic product (GDP), net national product (NNP), national income (ND), personal income (LD).
All the most important indicators used in macroeconomic analysis are fundamentally divided into three groups: flows, stocks (assets) and indicators of economic conjuncture. Flows reflect the transfer of values by subjects to each other in the process of economic activity, stocks reflect the accumulation and use of values by subjects. Flows are economic parameters, the value of which is measured per unit of time, as a rule, per year, the value of the economic parameters of stocks is measured at a certain moment. An example of flows is savings and investment, a budget deficit, stocks are the resulting capital, public debt.
Gross output is the value of all goods and services produced in an economy over a given period of time. Gross output includes absolutely all goods produced in the economy, including those intended for the production of other goods and services, the latter constitute intermediate consumption.
Gross national product (GNP) - is the total market value of all goods and services intended for final consumption and produced with the help of factors owned by a given country during a certain period of time (usually a year). GNP, in contrast to gross output, is cleared of intermediate consumption.
In this definition, attention should be paid to the key phrases: "market value", "final consumption", "factors belonging to a given country". They concentrate the basic principles used in calculating GNP. Thus, the concept of "market value" means that the valuation of goods and services included in GNP is carried out at market prices. The market price includes indirect taxes (excises, VAT, sales taxes, etc.). It differs from those factor prices that sellers of goods receive. The market price minus indirect taxes equals the factor cost. GNP includes goods and services at market prices. When calculating GNP, only final consumption is taken into account, that is, only the cost of final products. End products are goods and services that are purchased for end use and not for resale or further processing. When calculating GNP, it measures only the value of output produced by factors of production owned by a given country. For example, income received by a Moldovan citizen working in Greece is included in the GNP of Greece, but not included in the GNP of Moldova, since it is not received on its territory. At the same time, this income is included in Greece's GDP.
Characterizing GNP as "the most accurate total measure of goods and services that a country can produce" (P. Samuelson), Western economic thought has developed three methods for measuring it: by spending on products created in the country, by income received as a result of production, and as well as the value added method. The first method is the cost method. The value of GNP is defined as the monetary value of final products and services produced in a year. In other words, it is necessary to sum up all the costs for the acquisition (consumption) of the final product. The GNP indicator includes: consumer incomes of the population; (C); Gross private investment in the national economy; (Ig); Government procurement of goods and services. (G); Net exports (Xn); which represents the difference between the country's exports and imports. Thus, the costs listed here are GNP and show the market value of annual production:
C + Ig + G + Xn = GNP
The second method is the method of calculating GNP by income. GNP, on the other hand, is the sum of the incomes of individuals and enterprises (wages, interest, profits) and is defined in general as the sum of the remuneration of the owners of factors of production. This figure also includes indirect taxes on businesses, depreciation, property income. GNP can also be defined as the sum of incomes of sectors of the national economy. Both methods are considered equivalent and give the same GNP result. Double counting can be eliminated by the value added indicator, which is the difference between firms' sales of their finished products and the purchase of materials, tools, fuels and services from other firms. Value added is the market price of a firm's output minus the cost of raw materials consumed and materials purchased from suppliers. Summing up the value added produced by all economic entities, it is possible to determine the GNP, which represents the market value of all goods and services produced.
The gross national product is calculated at current market prices, which represents its nominal value. To obtain the true value of this indicator, it is necessary to clean prices from the influence of inflation, apply a price index, which will give the real value of the gross national product. The ratio of nominal GNP to real GNP shows the increase in GNP due to rising prices and is called the GNP deflator.
Gross domestic product (GDP) is the monetary value of all final goods and services produced in an economy over a given period. This takes into account the annual volume of final goods and services created by economic units that are residents of a given country. That is, enterprises, financial institutions, governments and private non-profit organizations serving households, etc., whose center of economic interests is associated with the economic territory of a given country for a year or more. Gross domestic product is obtained by subtracting net exports from the total GNP:
GDP=GNP-NE
Net export is the difference between the value of exporting goods and services and the value of importing products from abroad. The difference between GNP and GDP is insignificant; it ranges from - 1% to 1.5% of GDP. Based on the GNP and GDP indicators, a number of other important macroeconomic indicators included in the system of national accounts (SNA) can be calculated. One of them -
Net national product or NNP. It is defined in the following way:
NNP = GNP - Depreciation
It is known that buildings, equipment, machines, which are one of the main elements of production, serve for several years. Therefore, each unit of goods will contain a part of their value. The state legislates the service life of such assets, and thereby determines what part of their value will be monthly and daily contained in the produced mass of commodities. Thus, in the proceeds received from the sale, the consumed (transferred) part of the cost of equipment and machinery will also be contained in cash. Every year this part is withdrawn, accumulated and, when the service life of the equipment ends, it is used to purchase a new one. The considered mechanism for the renewal of consumed factors of production is called Depreciation. Obviously, in order to find out the true volume of final products that can be used to improve the welfare of the population, it is necessary to subtract depreciation from GNP, i.e. that part of the cost that goes to the renewal of worn-out factors of production. The rest of the GNP is called the net national product. The next indicator is
National Income (ND):
ND = NNP - indirect taxes on entrepreneurs.
Indirect taxes act in this case as a macroeconomic regulator between the prices at which consumers buy goods and the sales prices that are set by firms. National income is the total income earned by the owners of the factors of production: owners of labor (wages of hired workers), owners of capital (profit and interest), owners of land (land rent). To determine the ND from the NNP, it is necessary to subtract indirect taxes; the latter are markups on the prices of goods and services (excises, VAT, duties, etc.). The meaning of this lies in the fact that the state, while levying taxes, does not invest anything in production, therefore it cannot be considered as a supplier of economic resources. From the point of view of resource owners, ND is a measure of their income from participation in production for the current period. In Russian practice, a breakdown into two funds is used:
the consumption fund is a part of the ND that ensures the satisfaction of the material and cultural needs of people and the needs of society as a whole (for education, defense, etc.);
the accumulation fund is a part of the ND that ensures the development of production.
The SNA usually defines the rate of accumulation and the share of consumption, but as a percentage of GDP, not of national income. After making certain adjustments to the ND, such as social security contributions, income tax, undistributed income of corporations, transfer payments (pensions, child support, disability, unemployment, government subsidies, etc.), another macroeconomic indicator arises - personal income.
Disposable income (DI) or personal disposable income. Represents income received by households, other than NI, which is earned income. It should be noted here that part of the income earned - social insurance contributions, corporate income taxes - does not go to the population. At the same time, transfer payments made by the state are not the result of the worker's economic activity, but represent part of their income. Disposable income as income actually received can be calculated by subtracting social security contributions, corporate income taxes, retained earnings, individual taxes (income, personal property taxes, inheritance taxes) from national income and adding the sum of all transfer payments. Disposable income is at the personal disposal of members of society and is used for household consumption and savings. Personal income:
Personal Income (PI) = NI - Social Security Contributions - Corporate Retained Earnings + Income Taxes + Transfer Payments + Personal Interest Income, such as interest on government debt.
For the economy as a whole, national disposable income or national disposable product is also defined, which can be defined as follows:
NSD = GNP ± net transfers from abroad (i.e. gifts, donations, humanitarian aid, etc.).
So, the relationship of macroeconomic indicators can be represented by the following scheme:
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) - Depreciation (A) =
Net domestic product (NDP) - Indirect taxes =
National Income (NI) - Corporate Income Taxes - Social Security Contributions - Personal Income Taxes - Corporate Retained Earnings + Transfer Payments = Disposable Income (DI).
The analysis of the sectoral structure of the economy is carried out on the basis of the GDP indicator calculated by sectors. First of all, the correlation between the large national economic sectors of material and non-material production is taken into account.
The considered macroeconomic indicators are calculated on the basis of GNP and are closely interconnected, characterizing various aspects of the country's economic life. Macroeconomic indicators act as a way of displaying the state of affairs in the national economy in reporting. There are the most general (GNP, GDP) and more specific forms of indicators of macroeconomic activity. There are absolute and relative indicators, among which macroeconomic indices are of great importance. The main flows in the SNA are valued at market prices, that is, at the prices at which transactions are made (producer and end-customer prices). GDP is estimated at end-customer prices, gross output - at producer prices.
Products and services that do not take a commodity-money form are valued at market prices for similar goods sold on the market, or at cost if there is no market price (services of state institutions, public organizations, etc.). The SNA makes it possible to create an information base for studying the real processes that take place in a market economy, such as the development of production, inflation, unemployment, privatization, tax and customs activities. Below (see annex) is a diagram of the System of National Accounts.
Chapter 2. Modern problems of the formation of the Russian SNA
The use of the SNA is necessary for conducting an effective macroeconomic policy of the state, economic forecasting, and for international comparisons of national income. The process of transition to a market model of management and building a civilized market society is a complex and lengthy process, inextricably linked with the problems of various kinds and in almost all spheres of society. I will consider only the sphere of economic relations.
The first step towards achieving the set goal (the formation of the Russian SNA under market economic methods) should be the development of conceptual, theoretical, methodological and statistical aspects of the structure of the new macroeconomic model, institutional, sectoral and sectoral groupings of the national economy. In general, the main problems of the formation of the SNA in Russia can be reduced to the following:
1. Conceptual (development of the main provisions and principles for the formation of the Russian analogue of the version of the UN SNA 1993;
interpretation of production activity and definition of its boundaries;
determination of the cost composition of the product; development of the structure of the state budget, etc.);
2 Theoretical (strict scientific substantiation of the formation of a system of basic macroeconomic indicators in market conditions and the correspondence of the mechanism of their functioning to the economic structure of the economy);
3. Institutional (classification of institutional units according to the functional principle);
4. Methodological (the formation of a modern market forecasting methodology based on the principles of equivalence and interdependence of economics and politics, when the calculation of forecast indicators is based on data from regulatory legal acts that meets the needs of the Russian specifics of managing statistical accounting and forecasting bodies, public authorities, as well as international requirements and standards, the creation on this basis of a balance method for describing the economy, adequate to the market economic model of Russia, the development of methodological approaches to the formation of the structure of reporting indicators of the socio-economic development of the national economy: production, consumption (intermediate and final), distribution and redistribution of income, foreign trade; interpretation of financial flows, classification of income and expenses, definition of the category of savings and others);
5. Organizational and legal (approval of property rights and distribution of the boundaries of their species structure; creation of an integrated reporting system based on the State Statistics Committee of Russia, formed on the basis of the mandatory submission of reporting data by the Central Bank of Russia, the Ministry of Finance, the Customs Committee and other services and departments that are holders of financial reporting information and non-financial nature of enterprises and organizations, characterizing the development of the national economy of the country as a whole and within the framework of the monetary sector, the sector of government bodies and the external sector of the economy);
6. Statistical (updating the unified state register of enterprises and organizations of the State Statistics Committee of Russia (EGRPO); reviewing the procedure and methods for collecting external and internal data sources, their generalization and development of new data sources using new methods that meet the requirements of building a system of national balances).
All these problems are interrelated, since, for example,
changing the concept of the development of the national economy involves changing the socio-economic organization of society, the mechanism of functioning of the economic system itself, and so on.
And now we can move on to a more detailed consideration of these problems.
Conceptual problems. The conceptual problems of the formation of the SNA in a market economy are reduced to:
1. Determining the boundaries of production activities in the conditions of a market business model;
2. Development of the main conceptual provisions for the further development of the national economy and, in accordance with this, the definition of the composition of the system of basic indicators of the socio-economic development of the national economy;
3. Development of the main principles for the formation of the Russian system of national balances (integrity and balance in the context of the institutional sectors of the economy as a whole for the economy as a whole for the economy; the validity of the calculation of macroeconomic indicators due to the relationship of indicators and instruments and parameters of the state socio-economic policy in the context of all its directions );
4. Development of the basic principles for the functioning of the Russian system of national balances;
5. Determining the main directions for the development of the SNA in accordance with the established option for the development of the national economy in the future;
6. Development of the basic principles for the formation of scenario conditions for the forecast;
7. Development of the basic principles for the formation of a system of macroeconomic indicators in the reporting and forecast periods, operating on the basis of tools and parameters of various areas of state socio-economic policy;
8. Development of basic principles for the formation of short-term, medium-term and long-term forecasts using various areas of state socio-economic policy, their tools and parameters;
9. Compliance of the conceptual provisions of forcing the Russian system of national accounts with the main concepts of the 1993 UN SNA. in its general form, international requirements and standards.
Theoretical Problems The theoretical basis of the Russian SNA should be a system of views characteristic of the future market economy of Russia. Built on the principles of theoretical concepts of the formation of the Russian SNA; the mechanism of its functioning and determination of the boundaries of action. Almost all capitalist states have national accounts, but no country has a system in its pure form. The reason lies in the very nature of the capitalist economy, in which government agencies do not have full access to the economic information of private enterprises. Therefore, the SNA of the capitalist countries is limited to the study of economic equilibrium, the process of income formation and the conditions for the sale of the product. In this connection, at present, the main content of the national accounts in the capitalist countries (France, the USA, England) is income streams. Other aspects of economic analysis, such as the consideration of the production process and the interbranch production relations arising from it, or the financial turnover corresponding to the movement of income, or the determination of the wealth of a nation and its influence on economic life, are somewhat isolated. However, despite the fact that until now in the capitalist countries there is no fully integrated system of economic accounting that would bring together all aspects of analysis and forecasting, national accounting is developing approximately in this direction. In Russia, in accordance with the established practice of statistical accounting and forecasting, based on the concept of K. Marx on productive and unproductive labor, the main attention has always been paid to production, the movement of a material product, indicators of intersectoral balance, as well as indicators of the balance of reproduction of national income for the main divisions of the economy, balances fixed assets and national wealth. And this is correct, since only what is produced can be consumed, accumulated and exchanged. Based on the foregoing, we can conclude that the problems of a theoretical nature in the Russian economy as a whole, at present, are reduced to the definition and development of an integral and interconnected system of macroeconomic balances, the indicators of which are calculated on the basis of tools and parameters of various areas of state socio-economic policy, enshrined in normative-legal acts. The balance of macroeconomic indicators and state policy parameters is carried out both in institutional sectors of the economy and within the entire economy as a whole, is achieved at each level of balancing, respectively, through the use of end-to-end indicators of the system of balances and through the development of a consolidated balance of resource flows. The validity of developing a forecast of macroeconomic indicators of the system of balances is achieved through the use of methodological approaches in practical calculations that allow linking economics and politics on the basis of interrelation and mutual influence. The interrelation and mutual influence of indicators of an integral system of balances are due to the use of a methodology for calculating indicators based on regulatory legal acts, that is, through the use of tools and parameters of various areas carried out through public policy. It follows that the theoretical problems of the formation of the SNA, first of all, are inextricably linked with problems of a conceptual nature, organizational and legal problems, methodological and others.
Statistical issues. The transitivity of forms of relations (the specifics of forms of ownership and their transformation), their instability, the emergence and functioning of special transitional economic forms, which are a manifestation of the mixture of old and new, as well as the expression of contradictions with traditional systemic forms, that is, the very system of socio-economic relations of a transitional society, creates certain difficulties for the state statistics authorities in the formation of a correct information base for building the SNA according to the complete scheme and forecasting authorities for the development of a comprehensively substantiated scheme of socio-economic development. Russia for the future. One of the important problems associated with the introduction of the SNA into the statistical practice of economic calculations in Russia is the restructuring of the previously existing reporting system and the creation on its basis of a new one adequate to the basic concepts of the general SNA. A logical continuation of the work to improve the information base of statistics is the development and implementation of the USREO, which accumulates information about all organizations that have passed state registration, regardless of their organizational and legal form, form of ownership and types of activity. The need to obtain macroeconomic indicators in accordance with the principles of the SNA requires the revision of previous reporting forms, amendments to them, the development and introduction of new ones, as well as the conduct of surveys. However, the imperfection of the new reporting standards in the primary accounting of some indicators, as well as the different interpretation of concepts, their interpretation by various institutional units create certain difficulties for the transition of enterprises and organizations to the SNA.
Analysis is the final stage of any statistical research. Analysis of the development of the economy, as a rule, is carried out in order to identify the main relationships and proportions of social production; the degree of influence of individual factors on the results of economic activity; obtaining theoretical conclusions; formation of expediency and directions for further improvement of the statistical methodology used; formulation of practical conclusions about the main trends in the development of socio-economic processes and their effectiveness. The existing system of accounting and statistics was formed in the context of the operation of administrative-command methods of managing the economy, was directly dependent on the methodological foundations of central planning and was based, as a rule, on complete statistical observation. The composition of the system of indicators was formed taking into account the need to ensure the management functions of ministries and departments.
Changes in the system of economic relations in the country, associated primarily with the introduction of market relations, the intensive development of the non-state sector of the economy, processes in the social sphere, determine the use of new methods of statistical observation; new approaches to the formation of an information base - a system of statistical indicators developed by state statistics, meaning a more complete convergence of methods for the formation of statistical information with the standards adopted in the practice of developed countries and international economic organizations.
An analysis of generalizing economic indicators and their interrelationships in dynamics makes it possible to assess the correctness of Russia's ongoing economic policy and take timely measures to correct economic activity and foreign economic relations.
Chapter 3. Analysis of the state of the economy based on specific macroeconomic indicators.
The use of the SNA in domestic practice makes it possible to obtain a number of important macroeconomic indicators necessary for assessing and analyzing the functioning of the national economy and developing economic policy. The most important of them are: gross domestic product; gross national product; national income; national savings; disposable income; final consumer spending on goods and services; gross investment; foreign trade balance; the balance of current transactions with foreign countries, etc. Based on these data, the current trends in the development of the national economy are assessed, their changes are predicted, and economic policy and measures for its implementation are developed.
Let's visually get acquainted with the analysis of the state of the economy based on specific macroeconomic indicators. The article "Analysis of Economic Growth Rates (according to National Accounts for 1995-1999)" in the Economist magazine 2000 No. 6 will help us in this.
ANALYSIS OF ECONOMIC GROWTH RATES
(according to national accounts data for 1995-1999)
L Artemova, A Nazarova.
Overview of the main economic indicators of the SNA for 1995-1999.
Under the influence of understanding the key problems of socio-economic development in society, the need to strengthen the role of the state in regulating the economy, as well as linking the goals of economic policy with the interests of the whole people, is increasingly recognized. In connection with the establishment of a system of macroeconomic regulation, the importance of forecasting calculations is increasing, which characterize the current processes of expanded reproduction and help assess the prospects for growth in production, final consumption and accumulation. The development of general economic forecasts involves an interconnected analysis of various aspects of social reproduction, production, distribution, exchange and consumption. The predictive possibilities of such an analysis become especially significant if it is carried out on the basis of the main indicators of the system of national accounts, which are developed during the reporting period by the State Committee of the Russian Federation.
Let's try to consider from this angle the consolidated macroeconomic indicators for the period 1995-1999 (Table 1)
Table 1
Change in the dynamics of the main socio-economic indicators (in% to the previous year)
| Year | 1995 | 1996 | 1997 | 1998 | 1999 |
| GDP | 95,9 | 96,6 | 100,9 | 95,1 | 103,2 |
| Industrial products | 96,7 | 96,0 | 102,0 | 94,8 | 108,1 |
| Agricultural products. | 92,0 | 94,9 | 101,5 | 86,8 | 102,4 |
| Fixed assets | 100,2 | 99,96 | 99,6 | 99,5 | 99,5 |
| Investments in fixed assets | 89,9 | 81,9 | 95,0 | 93,3 | 104,5 |
| Retail turnover | 93,6 | 99,5 | 103,8 | 96,7 | 92,3 |
| Paid services to the population | 82,3 | 94,1 | 105,6 | 99,5 | 102,6 |
As the above data show, there has been a decline in all the main indicators of economic development from year to year. Only in 1997, there was a slight growth in the gross domestic product, industrial and agricultural products, but in the next year, 1998, the GDP fell again. In 1999, a more noticeable increase in GDP and industrial output was noted. However, in general, in relation to 1990, GDP in 1999 amounted to only 59.5%.
However, since 1999 there have been some positive developments in the economy. We can speak of them as an increase in industrial production, investments, a slowdown in inflation, some improvement in the financial condition of enterprises. The volume of industrial production increased by 8%.
The question is relevant: how stable are the marked shifts? Their immediate factors seem obvious. First, in the second half of 1998, due to the financial crisis, the effect of the devaluation of the ruble began to take effect, as a result of which production began to grow in a number of industries due to the replacement of imports that had risen in price. Secondly, exports of raw materials and energy resources increased, in particular due to the rise in world oil prices. In addition, in 1998 there was the largest drop in industrial production (-14.5%), i.e. growth came from a very low base.
It should be noted that the largest decline in production since 1992. to 1999 was in the sectors of final demand (light industry, agriculture, building materials industry, mechanical engineering and metalworking). Thus, while in 1999 the gross output of industry as a whole decreased by 46% compared to 1992, the decline in the sectors of extraction and primary processing of raw materials was much less: the production of the electric power industry decreased by 25%, the fuel industry - by 29%, non-ferrous metallurgy - by 36%. %. At the same time, in the sectors of final demand, the decline was: in light industry - 85%, in agricultural products - 42%, in the building materials industry - 63%, in mechanical engineering and metalworking - 53%.
Given the predominantly opportunistic nature of the factors that caused the analyzed recovery, it should be recognized that the development of positive processes is unstable and does not yet provide sufficient prerequisites for growth based on the renewal of the production apparatus and technologies. Moreover, in the current year, the increase in domestic production, which was due to the devaluation of the national currency, is gradually decreasing. It is impossible not to see the manifestations in the economy of the following negative factors: the lag in the dynamics of wages from the growth of inflation caused, on the one hand, an increase in the efficiency of industrial enterprises and an improvement in their financial condition, and on the other hand, a decrease in the demand of the population. In 1999 final consumer demand fell by 5%, while low incomes and an uneven structure of their distribution remained, which limited the growth of the domestic market and expanded reproduction.
In 1999, the dynamics of GDP production by industry changed significantly. With a general GDP growth of 3.2%, the increase due to the production of goods amounted to 6.4%, and the production of services - 1%, while in previous years, the production of GDP due to goods decreased at a faster rate than the production of services (Table 1). 2).
Change in the dynamics of the main socio-economic indicators
The structure of GDP production at current prices, in % of the total). table 2
In the volume of GDP production in 1999. increased the share of goods and net taxes. An analysis of the formation of primary income in the production of goods and services shows an increase in the problem of labor motivation, since the share of wages decreases from year to year and the share of taxes on production and imports grows (Table 3).
The system of national accounts developed by the State Statistics Committee of the Russian Federation provides for a general interconnected description of the economic process for the economy as a whole and for sectors and makes it possible to analyze reproduction. The distribution of primary incomes shows how incomes created in some sectors - producers of added value, come in the form of primary incomes to other sectors - income recipients (Table 4). Wage data captures the wages received by residents of a given country and makes it possible to analyze the bulk of the income of the household sector. Taxes on production and imports are the main source of income for the government sector. Gross profit and mixed income is the primary income of corporations (non-financial, financial, as well as non-cooperative enterprises and personal farms)
Structure of income generation Table 3
Structure of the use of the VFD Table 4
| Of the year | 1995 | 1996 | 1997 | 1998 | 1999 |
| GNRD | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
| households | 59,0 | 62,3 | 61,3 | 65,1 | 61,8 |
| Government agencies | 23,9 | 19,6 | 23,5 | 21,3 | 23,0 |
| Non-financial enterprises (NPOs) | 17,1 | 18,1 | 15,2 | 13,6 | 15,2 |
| 71,8 | 72,9 | 78,0 | 81,8 | 74,1 | |
| households | 49,8 | 49,8, | 52,2 | 57,8 | 55,2 |
| Government agencies | 19,6 | 20,6 | 22,2 | 20,3 | 16,0 |
| Nonprofit Organizations Serving Households (NPOs) | 2,4 | 2,5 | 3,6 | 3,7 | 2,9 |
| Gross saving | 28,2 | 27,1 | 22,0 | 18,2 | 25,9 |
| households | 9,2 | 12,5 | 9,1 | 7,4 | 6,6 |
| Government agencies | 4,3 | -1,0 | 1,3 | 0,09 | 7,1 |
| Non-financial enterprises, financial institutions and non-profit institutions serving households | 14,7 | 15,6 | 11,6 | 9,9 | 12,2 |
Ultimately, gross disposable income, both for the economy as a whole and for economic sectors, is allocated to expenditures for final consumption and savings, which can be used to finance savings. From the given data in comparable prices, it follows that gross savings systematically decreased, with the exception of 1999 (Table 5)
Table 5
Dynamics of gross savings
The state of resources and their use to finance gross capital formation from internal and external sources in the economy as a whole and by sector can be analyzed based on the capital account data (Table 6)
Table 6
Capital account
| Of the year | 1995 | 1996 | 1997 | 1998 | 1999 |
| Resources, total | 28,2 | 27,1 | 22,0 | 18,2 | 25,9 |
| Gross national saving | 0,9 | 0,7 | 0,5 | 0,6 | 1,1 |
| Capital transfers from the rest of the world | -1,0 | -0,8 | -0,7 | -0,8 | -1,2 |
| Usage, total | 28,1 | 27,0 | 21,8 | 18,0 | 25,8 |
| Gross capital formation, total | 25,7 | 24,9 | 23,8 | 16,3 | 16,3 |
| Fixed capital | 21,1 | 21,6 | 19,7 | 18,3 | 15,7 |
| Working capital | 4,2 | 3,5 | 3,8 | -2,2 | 0,4 |
| Net acquisition of value | 0,4 | -0,2 | 0,3 | 0,2 | 0,2 |
| Net lending or net borrowing | 2,4 | 2,1 | -1,3 | 1,7 | 11,1 |
| Statistical discrepancy | 0,0 | 0,0 | -0,7 | 0,0 | -1,6 |
As we can see, in 1999 gross national saving increased, but gross fixed capital formation did not increase. A few recovered material circulating assets. With a lack of domestic savings for gross capital formation and capital investment, the problem of rational utilization of the existing production potential is attracting more and more attention.
Based on the calculations of the Institute for Economic Research under the Ministry of Economy of the Russian Federation, the economic crisis in Russia has led to the accumulation in the manufacturing sector of a huge amount of unused equipment, including physically worn out equipment. In 1991-1998. (according to the calculations of the IMEI), the utilization of the production potential of industrial enterprises decreased to 50% against 88 in the pre-reform period. "In large and medium-sized industrial enterprises, it decreased by almost 3.5 times. Production capacities (in terms of the capacity balance range) are only 25% loaded The lack of investment, especially during the crisis, led to the aging of production potential, and problems in the sale of products and insufficient utilization of production capacities led to an absolute reduction in production potential and the disposal of equipment without compensation for its new commissioning. domestic demand, and this will lead to an increase in economic activity in the manufacturing sector and the possibility of replacing imported products.However, these factors are constrained by the fact that there is no strong growth in domestic demand, investment is limited, and funds are needed for at least minimal reconstruction of existing Xia production capacity. Therefore, the majority of idle capacities cannot be a long-term factor in sustainable economic growth.
In industry, more than 70% of all machines and equipment have been in operation for more than 10 years. The share of relatively young equipment aged 5 years, which determines the technical and technological level of production, decreased from 29% in 1990 to 5% in 1997. We also note that the average actual service life of both the fixed capital as a whole and its active part (machinery and equipment) already by 1990 significantly exceeded the standards.
The average age of industrial production equipment has reached almost 16 years, and the average actual life of their equipment is almost 32 years. On the basis of such equipment, enterprises are not able to produce competitive products. Therefore, unloaded capacities can hardly be considered as a long-term factor in economic growth. Sustained economic recovery. taking into account the low technical and technological level of capacity, it is possible only with large internal savings - sources of investment.
The final use of GDP includes expenditures on final consumption of material goods and services of households and public institutions, gross fixed capital formation, tangible assets and valuables, net exports of goods and services (Table 7)
Table 7
End use of GDP
(in current prices, in % of the total)
| Of the year | 1995 | 1996 | 1997 | 1998 | 1999 |
| GDP used | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
| Final consumption expenditure | 71,1 | 71,4 | 74,4 | 77,1 | 68,6 |
| Households | 49,3 | 48,8 | 49,8 | 54,4 | 51,0 |
| Government institutions | 19,4 | 20,2 | 21,2 | 19,2 | 14,8 |
| Gross capital formation | 25,4 | 24,4 | 22,7 | 15,4 | 15,1 |
| fixed capital | 20,9 | 21,2 | 18,8 | 17,2 | 14,5 |
| Net exports of goods and services | 3,5 | 4,1 | 2,9 | 7,4 | 16,3 |
The structure of the use of disposable income, starting from the III quarter of 1998, under the influence of the financial crisis has deteriorated significantly. In 1999 this trend continues. Decreased domestic demand for goods and services from households. The decrease in demand was influenced by the low level of incomes of the population and their uneven distribution (Table 8).
Table 8
Changes in the main socio-economic indicators of the standard of living of the population
(in % to the previous year)
There was a sharp stratification of incomes of the population. Thus, in 1998 in Russia the incomes of the 10% of the rich exceeded the incomes of the 10% of the poor by 24 times, while in the USA and Great Britain it was 4 times, and in Germany it was 3 times. In 1998 86% of the population had average per capita monetary incomes of the population from 400 to 1000 rubles, and the remaining 14% had more.
In 1999 in comparison with 1998, the real incomes of the population decreased by about 15% in general. The decline in domestic demand limits the growth of the domestic market and the production of goods and services for final consumption. The share of gross capital formation, including fixed capital, also decreased.
The total domestic demand for consumption and investment decreased against the corresponding year in 1998. - by 9%, and in 1999. - another 2%. In 1999, the used gross domestic product was less than 60% of the 1990 level (in comparable terms), including final consumption expenditures - 77%, gross capital formation - 16%, while net exports of goods and services increased by 94%. times. This results in a redistribution that is negative for the domestic economy: domestic resources are increasingly directed abroad. Such a structure for the use of the gross domestic product does not meet the objectives of expanded reproduction and the solution of socio-economic problems for sustainable economic growth.
Calculation of economic growth rates
Based on the analysis of the results of economic development for 1997-1999. we have calculated two versions of the economic growth forecast for 2000. GDP growth rates are determined by socio-economic tasks and real opportunities in accordance with the available reproduction resources.
Forecast of GDP growth rates using the production account method. Determination of possible rates of economic growth involves solving a number of complex problems, especially taking into account the actual state of the Russian economy, when for the period from 1992 to 1998. negative indicators prevailed. With a significant influence of the noted market factors, it is difficult to analyze the interrelated factors of growth dynamics and draw certain conclusions. Nevertheless, since there are known relationships between the rates of production growth, capital accumulation and capital intensity (or capital intensity) of production growth, we tried to study the trends of change: the dynamics of gross output, the share of GDP in gross output, the dynamics of fixed assets (capital), capital productivity (or capital intensity).
Change in the dynamics of the total value of cash fixed assets for 1995-1999. shows that their decline occurred annually, mainly due to the reduction in industries that produce goods. Given the level of their actual use, the reduction was even greater.
In 1999, it was in this group of industries that the growth in gross output associated with import substitution, which ultimately led to an increase in gross output in the economy as a whole, led to a significant increase in capital productivity (by 3.8%), while it decreased by 5% in the previous year. In service industries, there was no significant increase in capital productivity. In 1999, its growth here amounted to 100.2%, with a decrease of 1-3% in previous years.
Since the trends of 1999, which developed against the backdrop of the crisis situation of 1998, are not indicative, and the reserves of import substitution have been largely exhausted, the prerequisites for the forecast for 2000 are not indicative. take into account both data from previous years and long-term goals for achieving economic growth.
The first version of the forecast assumes an increase in capital productivity in the economy as a whole by 2%, subject to the stabilization of funds. At the same time, in industries producing goods, its growth will be 3%, and in industries providing services - 1% against 1999. If these prerequisites are met, the gross output in the economy as a whole will increase by 2%, and the growth of the gross domestic product, while maintaining its share in the gross output, will be 2%. In the second option - with an increase in capital productivity by 4% - GDP growth will also be 4% (Table 9).
Table 9
Changes in the dynamics of the main factors of RR growth
(in % to the previous year)
| Of the year | 1997 | 1998 | 1999 | 2000 | |
| 1 var | 2 var | ||||
| Gross output by economy, total | 100,6 | 94,6 | 103,3 | 102 | 104 |
| 100,5 | 93,5 | 106,5 | 103 | 105 | |
| 100,7 | 95,9 | 100,6 | 101 | 103 | |
| Fixed assets (at the end of the year) | 99,6 | 99,5 | 99,5 | 100 | 100 |
| in industries that produce goods | 98,6 | 98,6 | 98,6 | 100 | 100 |
| in service industries | 100,4 | 100,4 | 100,4 | 100 | 100 |
| Capital productivity in the economy, total (1:2) | 101,0 | 95,0 | 103,8 | 102 | 104 |
| in industries that produce goods | 101,9 | 94,6 | 108,0 | 103 | 105 |
| in service industries | 100,3 | 95,5 | 100,1 | 101 | 103 |
| GDP produced | 100,9 | 95,1 | 103,2 | 102 | 104 |
Forecast of GDP growth rates by end-use method. The forecast of changes in the dynamics of the gross domestic product (on the demand side) can be determined by the elements of final use: the consumption of material goods and services, gross capital formation and net exports.
The lower limit of the volume of consumption of material goods and services can be determined by the general socio-economic conditions for the development of the national economy, the achieved level of consumption on average per capita and the change in the dynamics of population growth, as well as the growth in consumption per capita.
In our calculation for the forecast period, the following conditions are assumed: the growth of the achieved level of consumption on average per capita in the first variant - by 2%, in the second - by 4%; a certain change in population dynamics (Table 10).
Accepted forecast assumptions
Table 10
Bearing in mind the huge differentiation of incomes by population groups, the rise in the level of consumption can be ensured by narrowing this gap, which will lead to an increase in the demand of the population. To do this, it is necessary to solve a number of specific tasks on wages in the sphere of production of goods and services. Taking into account the assumed assumptions, the volume of final consumption in 2000 will increase against 1999. by 2-4%, with a decrease in the number of 0.3%. The forecast of the total volume of gross capital formation is connected with the calculations of the forecast of the volume of investments in fixed assets, the balance of funds and their use.
To achieve sustainable growth rates, it is necessary to sharply increase the rate of accumulation in GDP, although in the coming years a significant increase in the share of gross capital formation seems problematic. In our opinion, the way out of the economy from the crisis is possible only by relying on the available capacities and involving part of them in the economic turnover. This is necessary in order to improve the health of getting rid of unused equipment, for which an inventory and sanitation of production facilities should be carried out. It is also necessary to consider the issues of taxation and depreciation charges for unused capacities and take the necessary measures to implement measures to implement: an industrial policy aimed at stimulating domestic demand; restructuring of industry; development of investment programs for the re-equipment of industries; creating the necessary conditions for enterprises to sell unused equipment; solving a number of socio-economic problems to reduce the differentiation of income and consumption in order to revive the demand of the population; rationalization of foreign trade.
The two options for forecasting gross capital formation take into account the relationship between the growth rate of the produced gross domestic product and the growth of gross capital formation, as well as between the growth rate of final consumption and gross capital formation.
Analysis of the relationship between the dynamics of GDP and the dynamics of gross capital formation for 1992-1999. shows: with an increase in gross fixed capital formation by 1%, GDP growth is 0.3%. Assuming GDP growth in 2000. within 2-4%, this will require an increase in gross capital formation by 5-11%, final domestic demand will increase by 2-5% (Table 11).
Table 11
Forecast indicators of gross capital formation
When forecasting the total volume of the gross domestic product used, it is necessary to take into account the balance of foreign trade (export and import of goods and services). The volume of exports of goods for the forecast period was determined depending on the situation of demand in world markets, production capabilities and growth in demand from the domestic market. In 2000, exports are projected at the 1999 level.
The fulfillment of the requirement of a balanced economy, in which the demand for a product corresponds to its supply, is estimated on the basis of the main national accounts identity: GDPd - C + 1 + X - M, where GDPd is GDP used; C - final consumption of material goods and services; I - gross accumulation; X - export of goods and services; M - import of goods and services.
Equating the produced and used GDP in forecast calculations, we get: GDP = C + I + X - M, whence GDP + M = C +1 + X.
The right side of the balance sheet shows the aggregate demand placed on production by the sectors of the domestic economy (C + I) and the outside world (X). On the left side - the aggregate supply, which is the value of the GDP produced in the country (GDP) and import deliveries (M). Conventionally, this identity is also valid for percentage changes: %GDP + %M = %C + %1 + %X.
Aggregate demand (C + 1 + X), calculated in terms of end use, determines the required amount of aggregate supply. The domestic supply of the product, in turn, is limited by the level of GDP calculated by the production method. The excess of aggregate demand over supply (i.e., the missing amount of supply) is covered by import supplies, i.e. the required import dynamics is the estimated residual value: % Md " %C + %1 + %X - %GDP.
The calculation of imports is its forecast from the demand side (M), i.e. shows how much imports must be attracted to meet the domestic demand of the economy. With this approach to the forecast, the volume of imports, calculated from the demand side, remains at the level of 1999, i.e. its dynamics is close to 0. The forecast of imports from the demand side is linked to its calculation from the supply side or based on the forecast of the country's balance of payments (Table 12)
Table 12
Foreign trade balance according to the forecast for 2000
Having determined the dynamics of GDP in terms of final use and production, we iterate their convergence, and after that, having adopted the main variant, we correct all parameters of the formation, distribution and redistribution of income.
The sum of elements of GDP use (C + I -t X - M) in comparable prices of 1999 in the first variant shows a possible growth in the gross domestic product used at the level of 2%, and in the second - up to 4% (Table 13).
Table 13
To link all the main economic indicators of the SNA as a whole, calculations are made on the formation, distribution and redistribution of gross national income on the main economic sectors and the financial program is adjusted, i.e. requirements for monetary and fiscal areas. When carrying out iterative calculations, a choice of options is provided, based on the need to: fulfill external obligations; ensure expanded reproduction; solve socio-economic problems within the country; ensure the economic security of the country, taking into account the possibilities of production, consumption and accumulation. The accounts of generation and distribution of income show the parameters of wages, taxes and profits at the macro level; secondary distribution account - parameters of current taxes and deductions, social payments and other payments. The main option for calculating indicators at the macro level should be linked to the country's balance of payments, as well as the possibilities of financing gross capital formation from internal and external sources.
Conclusion.
SNA is the most common balance method of economic development statistics and its results, reflects the results of the production of goods and services, sources of income from all types of economic activity, the contribution of each institutional unit, each sector of the economy and industry to their creation and participation in their distribution and use, and also in the accumulation of national wealth. The purpose of national accounting is to give a clear digital display of the state of the country's economy over a certain period of time. The system of national accounts, using a closed system of accounts and a number of additional tables, shows the nature of economic processes and the main macroeconomic indicators: GNP, GDP, ND
Although the SNA arose much later than accounting, it adopted many of its general principles, for example: the principle of double entry of each transaction, the distinction between assets and liabilities, valuation of individual items of income and expenses, etc. This commonality lies in the fact that ultimately the purpose of both accounting and reporting systems is to provide information for decision-making related to managing the economy and improving its efficiency, albeit at different levels. The transition to the SNS, one can say frankly, was an inevitable process. In a market economy, the old system of basic macroeconomic indicators pathologically could not be an effective tool for statistical accounting and display of global economic processes and their results. Unlike the national accounts of foreign countries, the domestic SNA provides for the possibility of distinguishing between the sphere of material production and the sphere of intangible services. The connecting link in the system of macroeconomic indicators is the coordinated indicators of the formation, distribution, redistribution and use of national income as a set of income from economic activity and the creation and movement of the final product as the main characteristic of the socio-economic development of both the country and the region.
In this work, special attention was paid to the importance of National Accounting for state regulation, the latter is especially relevant in connection with the need to develop and implement strategic structural changes in the economy. Based on practical material: The Economist magazine for 2000. Article No. 6 “Analysis of economic growth rates” (according to national accounts data for 1995-1999), one can trace the dynamics of changes in the main economic indicators of the SNA, analyze this dynamics, its impact on the economy and make appropriate forecasts. The ongoing variant calculations of macro indicators for the forecast period underlie the development of the federal and consolidated budgets of the country, tax and monetary policy. In the national accounting literature, as a rule, the analytical, applied nature of the SNA is emphasized. This quality was, to a certain extent, a consequence of the very process of forming the SNA as a result of the development of the theory of macroeconomic analysis in relation to the requirements of economic policy.
It is no coincidence that the definitions of the SNA emphasize its integrity and complexity, it is noted that the SNA is “a way of describing ... the main economic phenomena that make up and characterize the economic and financial life of a nation over a certain period.
Bibliography:
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The macroeconomic theory arose in the 30s of the 20th century, thanks to the research of John Keynes. The formation of microeks refers to the last third or the end of the 20th century. ( microphone- this is part of the science of ek theory, which studies ek processes and phenomena at the level of individual economic entities).
Macroek-ka - this is a section of the ek-koy theory that studies the ek-ku (folk economy), as a whole.
The subject of macro yavl-Xia study of the features of the functioning of the national economy, arising as a result of the interaction of all its participants (households and firms, go.-x and non-government-x sectors). In addition, the subject of macro-ki lies in the analysis of macroeconomic indicators, such as: national income, unemployment rate, economic growth rates, etc.
In general composition of the national eq-ki characterized by the following macroeconomic indicators:
1) national volume of production;
2) the general price level;
3)% rate;
4) employment.
The application of macroanalysis was caused by the need to explain the processes taking place on the scale of one country. Macroanalysis based on the aggregation method, i.e. the formation of aggregate indicators (macro-cal indicators) characterizing the movement of ek-ki as a whole.
Macroek uses 3 main methods:
1) statistical;
2) mathematical;
3) balance.
In front of the eq-coy of any country are main tasks and goals:
1) ex-cue growth;
2) stable price level;
3) full employment;
4) social protection;
5) fair distribution of income;
6) ex-kai freedom;
7) ek-kaya efficiency;
8) trade balance.
International system of national accounts - this is a system of statistical indicators aimed at measuring social production on the scale of one country, in order to determine the state of the economy as a whole. The International System of National Accounts (SNA) links together the most important macroeconomic indicators and is a modern system for collecting and processing information and is used in almost all countries for macroanalysis of the market economy. SNA is based on the accounting principle of double entry and is a set of balance sheets.
Consolidated accounts form the basis of the SNA: GDP, GNP, ND (national income), NNP (net national product), etc.
The main requirement in calculating GDP and GNP is that goods and services are counted only once, so the following concept is introduced:
1)end products- these are goods and services that are bought by consumers for final use, and not for resale;
2)intermediate products- these are goods and services that are further processed or resold several times before reaching the final consumer. If we sum up the goods and services sold in the country in all sectors of the economy, then repeated repeated counting is inevitable, distorting the real volume of the gross domestic product produced. The indicator allows to exclude double counting added value- this is the market price of the company's products minus raw materials and materials purchased from suppliers.
The main indicator of the SNA is the gross product - it comes in two forms:
I.GNP - the sum of the market prices of all final goods and services produced by the producers of a given country during the year, regardless of their location (inside the country and abroad). GNP is a monetary indicator, so There are two types of GDP:
1)GNP-nominal is GNP calculated at current market prices;
2)GNP-real- to get this indicator, you need to clear the GNP-nominal from the influence of inflation, i.e. use price index:
GNPr \u003d (GNPn) / (Jc);
Jц = (average prices for goods and services included in the consumer basket in the current year) / (average prices for goods and services included in the consumer basket in the base year).
The ratio of nominal GNP to real shows an increase in GNP due to rising prices and is called the GNP deflator:
Dvnp = (GNPn) / (GNPr).
II.GDP - the sum of market prices of final goods and services produced within a certain period within the country with the help of factors of production, regardless of their scientific coloring.
4 methods are used to calculate GNP:
1) summing up the cost of final goods and services;
2) value added method;
3) the cost stream method is based on the summation of all cost items:
a) consumer spending - denoted by the letter C;
b) gross private investment in the national economy, designated by the letter I;
c) government spending - G;
d) net exports - NX. This is the difference between a country's exports and imports.
GNP (V expenditure) = C + I + G + NX;
4) the income stream method is based on the summation of the income of the owners of the factors of production:
a) depreciation - A +;
b) s / n - income, labor;
c) rent - R - land;
d)% for capital;
e) profit Pr undertaking. ability;
f) indirect taxes - Book.
GNP (income) \u003d A + s / n + R +% + Pr + Book.
And as a rule Vdoh = Vexp.
GDP = GNP - net exports NX, because GDP does not include receipts from international transactions, it is used to determine the level of wealth per capita:
Good \u003d ((GDP) / (population)) * 100%.
GDP and GNP form a base on the basis of which are calculated other macroeconomic indicators:
1)Net national product- reflects the total market value of the products of the national production, excluding the costs of past periods:
NNP \u003d GNP - A;
2)National income- characterizes the amount of income of all owners of factors of production (s / n, profit, R, etc.) used in the production of GNP:
ND \u003d NNP - Kn;
3)Personal income- this is the income of e-subjects of the given country, received before payment of individual taxes:
LD \u003d ND - social insurance contributions - income tax - retained earnings p / n + dividends + transfer payments (pensions, benefits);
4)personal disposable income- this is the income received after the payment of individual taxes and coming to the personal disposal of eq-ing subjects:
JPL = LD - personal income tax (i.e. personal income tax, property tax, etc.).
LJD spreads in two directions:
1) current consumption → aggregate demand → aggregate supply → GNP (GDP);
2) savings (from 15 to 25%) → investments (in a bank) → economic growth.
6. Economic cycle: essence and main features.
Ek-some development of the country is analyzed at certain intervals of time. With the help of quantitative meters. When comparing indicators by time intervals, one can note the uneven change in these indicators.
In some science, an explanation was found for this phenomenon with the help of the concept cyclicality- a form of movement characterized by ups and downs. It was noticed that periods of ups and downs occur with a certain rhythm, i.e. forms an ek-cue cycle. In the ek theory, cyclicity is considered as an integral property of the ek development, characterized by the fact that after the completion of the next cycle, a new one begins, but on the basis of higher indicators:
where GNP is the volume of production,
T is the period of time.
Ek cue cycle - e. periodic fluctuations in business activity in society. Ek-ka, during the cycle it goes through several phases in succession.
Marx was one of the first economists who began to pay serious attention to the problems of cyclicality, he and his followers studied mainly the industrial cycle lasting 7-12 years. According to Marx, the cycle consists of 4 phases: crisis, depression, recovery, recovery.
His theory is consistent modern eco-theory of cyclicity . Where 4 phases are also distinguished: peak (peak, boom, rise), compression (decline, recession), bottom (depression), recovery (expansion). Some economists single out only two phases: decline and rise.
I. Crisis - e. decline in production. Distinguish between a crisis of overproduction and a crisis of underproduction. The market economy is characterized by a crisis of overproduction. It manifests itself in the following: inventories of unsold products are growing, mass bankruptcy is observed, unemployment is growing, and the interest rate is rising.
II. Depression - stagnation in eq-ke (coffee). Production is marking time, part of the goods is destroyed, and part is sold at reduced prices, obsolete equipment is liquidated, thereby stopping the fall in prices, and a high level of unemployment remains. Ek-ka goes into a phase of revival.
III. revival is a gradual increase in the rate of interest on loans. The labor force is gradually being drawn into production, the unemployment rate is declining, goods are being absorbed, entrepreneurs are increasing the demand for new equipment and raw materials. The decisive factor in the transition from depression to recovery is the renewal of fixed capital.
IV. Climb - the rapid growth of production, trade, profits, prices and employment. The level of proizv-va exceeds its level in the pre-crisis period, goes beyond effective demand and eq-ka goes into a state of peak. The market is overflowing with unsold goods and a new industrial cycle begins.
There are the following types of ex-cycles by duration:
1)classic or industrial eq-cue cycle. Its duration is on average from 7 to 11 years. And the main characteristic of this cycle is the change in GDP;
2)small commodity cycle. On average, its duration is from 3 to 5 years. The main characteristic is the change in stocks of inventory items, including gold reserves in the country;
3)investment or construction cycle. On average, its duration is from 15 to 22 years. Its main characteristic is the change in the volume of investments in the construction industry;
4)Big eq-cue cycle or long Kondratiev wave. The average cycle time is 50 to 65 years. Main characteristics: wars or revolutions, significant discoveries in technology, the discovery of large mineral deposits, etc. In general, the long waves of Kondratiev show that with a regularity of 50-60 years, both in individual countries and in the world, events occur that can change not only the main economic indicators, but also the social system as a whole.
Various economists consider various factors to be the causes of cyclical phenomena. They can be divided into two groups :
1)external factors or causes:
a) changes in solar activity;
b) wars and revolutions;
c) major scientific and technical discoveries;
d) population migration (resettlement from the country);
e) discovery of large deposits of natural resources - gold, uranium, oil, etc.
2)internal causes:
a) low solvency of the population, which leads to overproduction of goods and, as a result, to a reduction in supply;
b) errors in economic policy (fiscal and monetary);
c) disequilibrium of m / y by aggregate demand and aggregate supply, which leads to underproduction.
3)the course of the eco-cycle can be significantly influenced by the state, it can change the duration, frequency of periods of recession and growth, through the tax-credit system and budgetary policy, i.e. through the fiscal and monetary floor-ku (monetary).
Fiscal field directed primarily to the regulation of aggregate demand, by increasing or decreasing the cost of state Islands and changes in tax rates.
Monetary (credit and monetary) floor focused on the regulation of aggregate supply using the quantity theory of money, discount rate, etc.
Anti-cyclic half of the state - e. half-ka smoothing cyclic fluctuations. To this end, during the rise, the state should reduce the money supply, increase taxes and reduce budget spending, reduce wages and reduce state investment. During a crisis, the reverse process of recovery should take place.
In this way , economic cycles have very serious consequences, which are reflected not only in the change in the value of macroeconomic indicators, but also affect other aspects of society. All economic cycles are not similar to each other not in terms of duration, not in terms of the amplitude of fluctuations in the main macroeconomic indicators, but, nevertheless, economic cycles have common features - this is, first of all, the same structure of economic cycles.
7. World economy: main features and trends of its development.
The world economy at the turn of the 20th and 21st centuries is entirely based on the principles of market economy, the laws of the international division of labor (MRT), and the internationalization of production.
World ek-ka - e. a set of national eq countries of the world connected m / y with a system of international eq relations (IR) (foreign trade, export of capital, migration of labor, etc.).
The main subjects of the world economy :
1) state-in (developed market countries. ek-ki, developing countries with transition ek-koy);
2) a transnational corporation (TNK - corporations whose parent company is owned by the capital of one country, and branches are scattered throughout many countries of the world) (ford, gazprom, lukoil, vtb);
3) international ek-kie org-ii of a different level (WTO, BEC, IMF, European Union) and international financial centers;
4) national p / p-i (companies) of various levels;
5) individuals.
The structure of the world economy :
1) the world market for goods and services;
2) the world capital market;
3) the world labor market;
4) international monetary system;
5) international credit and financial system;
6) international scientific and information space (Internet).
Fundamentals of the formation of the world economy is an MRI.
The process of functioning of the world economy allows us to identify a number of trends and patterns of its development at the turn of the 20th-21st centuries :
1)Internationalization of economic life- strengthening the country's participation in the world economy, i.е. the formation of sustainable production and economic relations between the countries. The development of such forms of management, which link the production of some countries with the consumption of its results by others;
2)liberalization of foreign economic relations (free trade)- as a trend in the development of the world economy means an increase in the degree of opening of the national economy to the outside world. Customs duties on the way of the international movement of goods are reduced, a favorable investment climate is created to attract foreign investment, the state migration field becomes less rigid;
3)regional economic integration of countries(EU) - the process of economic and political unification of countries on the basis of the development of deep stable ties and MRI between national economies. The most significant integration associations in the modern world market are: the EU (27 countries), the North American Free Trade Area (NAFTA): USA, Canada, Mexico; Southern Cone Common Market (MERCOSUR): Argentina, Brazil, Uruguay, Paraguay; Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN); Asian Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC);
4)transnationalization of capital and production- the process of strengthening TNCs in the world market;
5)unification of the rules of economic life and the creation of a system of interstate regulation of world economic relations in the world economy. The modern world eq-cue order covers the regulation of international, currency, settlement, credit, trade relations; serves as the basis for transactions in the sphere of international exchange. The main role in the formation of the world order belongs to the international org-m: the IMF (inter-th shaft fund), the World Bank (World Bank), the WTO and others;
6)Globalization of the world economy- the process of transforming the world economy into a single market for goods, services, capital, labor and knowledge;
7)change in the m / y ratio of the real and financial sectors; (The real sector of the economy (RSE) is a set of sectors of the economy that produce tangible and intangible goods and services, with the exception of financial, credit and exchange operations, which belong to the financial sector of the economy);
8)change in the MRI system: the place and role of a country in the MRI is now less and less dependent on its natural and climatic resources and geographical location, and more and more on the "acquired" resources (technology, capital, quality composition of the labor force), as well as on how much this or that country " fits into the strategic goals of the largest international corporations;
9)post-industrialization: the transition from an industrial society to a post-industrial one - this society has such features as the predominance of services in production and consumption, a high level of education, a new attitude to work, increased attention to the environment, humanization of the ek-ki (socialization, i.e. ek studies of human life and activities), the informatization of society (the emergence and development of computers), the renaissance (revival) of small business.
Macroeconomic indicators are aggregated (cumulative) values that characterize the movement of the economy as a whole. One of the main such indicators is economic efficiency, understood as the ratio of the beneficial effect (result) to costs.
Economic efficiency in relation to the activity of a separate economic unit is not identical to efficiency on the scale of society.
The economic efficiency of the national economy is a state in which it is impossible to increase the degree of satisfaction of the needs of at least one member of society without worsening the situation of another. This state is called Pareto efficiency (named after the Italian economist V. Pareto).
Efficiency should not be understood only as the result achieved by the national economy or a separate industry over a certain period of time, but rather an effect. The effect may be significant, but if it is achieved at a high cost, then the efficiency will remain unchanged or even decrease. Thus, efficiency is not an absolute value, but a relative one, indicating not only an increase in production indicators, but also the price (due to what costs) of the gains achieved.
World experience shows that the growth of efficiency is an objective, natural, stable, repetitive and causal process. The more civilized the society, the more important it becomes to increase the efficiency of production, as the need and understanding of the need to save the social costs of excessively increased production increases. An increase in the efficiency of social production acquires the features of an economic law, which can be formulated as the law of increasing production efficiency.
The greatest increase in production efficiency is achieved with an intensive type of expanded reproduction, which is characteristic of the current stage of development of society and the economy of developed countries.
The main indicators of the efficiency of social production are the productivity of social labor (the ratio of the total social product to the number of workers in the sphere of material production), capital productivity (the ratio of national income to the average annual value of fixed assets and working capital), capital intensity (the inverse of capital productivity), etc.
The result of the functioning of the national economy is the national product, which is measured by various macroeconomic indicators, such as: gross domestic product, gross national income.
Gross domestic product (GDP) is a general indicator that represents the total value of goods and services at market prices created by resident and non-resident institutional units within a country, using the country's factors of production over a certain period.
Its dynamics is used to assess the overall performance of the economy, and, therefore, to determine the relative success or failure of economic policy measures pursued by the government.
The GDP indicator measures the value of only final products (products used for final consumption, accumulation and export) and does not take into account the value of intermediate goods and services consumed in the production process (raw materials, materials, fuel, energy, etc.). Otherwise, double counting would take place, since the cost of intermediate products is included in the cost of final goods and services.
There are three ways to measure GDP:
By income (distributive method) - as the sum of incomes of individuals, joint-stock companies, private enterprises, as well as government revenues from entrepreneurial activities and government bodies in the form of taxes on production and imports.
GDP = W + R + I + P
where W - gross national income;
i - percentage;
P - profit;
By expenditures (final use method) - as the sum of expenditures on personal consumption, government consumption (purchase of goods and services), on capital investments and the balance of foreign trade.
GDP = C + I + G + X,
Where С - personal consumption expenses;
I - investments;
G -__ government spending;
X - net exports (as the difference between exports and imports);
By value added (production method) - as the sum of the added value of all producers at each stage of the production of the final product. This calculation method takes into account the contribution of various firms and industries to the creation of GDP. Eliminating intermediates solves the problem of double counting. For the economy as a whole, the sum of all value added must be equal to the sum of final goods and services. In Russia, at present, the most accessible and up-to-date information is data on the production of goods and services, collected by the State Committee on Statistics on the basis of statistical reporting of enterprises, so the main method for calculating GDP is the production method.
Gross national income (GNI) - serves to account for the totality of primary income received by residents of a given country in connection with their participation in the production of national enterprises located both on the territory of this country and abroad. When calculating, this indicator differs from the GDP indicator by an amount equal to the balance of settlements with foreign countries. If we add to the GDP indicator the difference between the income from factors of production (factor income) from abroad and the factor income received by foreign investors in the territory of this country, we get the GNI indicator. So both GDP and GNI refer to the entire economy, but one measures output (GDP) and the other measures income (GNI). GNI is a set of primary incomes received by residents as a result of their participation in production and from property. The GNI indicator is almost identical to the previously used GNP indicator.
GNI = GDP + Balance of primary income from abroad
Net domestic product (NDP) is a measure of net output in a given year. It is equal to gross domestic product minus depreciation charges.
FVP = GDP - Depreciation.
Traditionally, in the educational literature on economic theory, based on foreign sources, the net national product (NNP) was calculated. NNP = GNP - Depreciation. Today, this indicator has been replaced by NVP.
The NDP shows the annual output that the economy can consume without reducing the production possibilities of future periods. If we subtract the consumption of fixed capital from the GNI, we get the net national income (NNI).
National income (NI) is an important macroeconomic indicator, calculated differently in foreign and domestic economies. Previously, in Western statistics, it was equal to CHIP minus indirect taxes. In the new version of the SNA, indirect taxes are included in national income.
National income is the real income used in society for personal consumption and expanded reproduction. This indicator includes the following types of income: wages; income from property (dividends, % for a loan, rent); income of unincorporated entrepreneurship; retained earnings (after dividends and before taxes) of joint-stock companies.
Produced ND is the entire volume of the newly created value of goods and services.
Used IR is the IR produced minus losses from natural disasters, storage damage, foreign trade balance.
According to the Marxist concept, ND is a newly created value only in the sphere of material production. In the Russian economy, ND is divided into: the consumption fund and the accumulation fund. The consumption fund is a part of the ND that ensures the satisfaction of the material and cultural needs of the population and society as a whole (culture, defense). The accumulation fund is a part of the ND that ensures the development of production. It is generally accepted that national income is created in industry, agriculture, construction, transport communications, as well as in trade and public catering, in the service sector (public and private), where the process of value creation continues.
The distribution of national income, in a broad sense, covers all spheres of social production: direct production, distribution, exchange and consumption.
In the process of direct production, the result of the distribution of national income is the receipt of a necessary and surplus product. At the stage of distribution, the necessary and surplus products are divided into primary incomes in the form of wages, profits, interest, rent, dividends, rent, etc.
After the distribution of the national income, it is redistributed through the mechanism of pricing in the sphere of circulation, the payment of various types of taxes to the state budget, social spending of the state, contributions of citizens to public, religious, charitable foundations and organizations. On the basis of the redistribution of national income, secondary or derivative incomes are formed, such as: pensions, scholarships, wages for non-material workers, benefits, etc.
Thus, as a result of the distribution and redistribution of national income, final incomes are created that are used for consumption and accumulation.
To characterize the standard of living, such macroeconomic indicators as: personal income and personal disposable income are used.
Personal income is the total income received by individual families before they pay taxes to the state. As such, personal income is not available in the SNA (System of National Accounts), but can be calculated by subtracting from the NI the three types of income that are earned but not received by individuals (social security contributions, corporate income taxes, retained earnings of firms) and adding income received by people, but not the result of their labor activity (transfer payments - pensions, scholarships, benefits).
Personal disposable income is the income of families and individuals that remains after taxes (LD minus taxes on citizens) and is spent on consumption and savings.
Disposable income is determined not only at the household level (HPL), but also at the level of the economy as a whole.
Gross national disposable income is used for final consumption and national saving and is obtained by summing GNI and net transfers from abroad (gifts, donations, humanitarian aid, etc.) less similar transfers transferred abroad.
The main macroeconomic indicator - GDP can be calculated in current year prices - this is nominal GDP, and in comparable (constant, basic) prices, which makes it possible to assess the change in the physical volume of output over a certain period of time - this is real GDP. The value of nominal GDP is influenced by: the dynamics of the real volume of production; price level dynamics.
Real GDP is calculated by adjusting nominal GDP for a price index:
If the value of the price index is less than one, then there is an upward adjustment of nominal GDP, which is called inflation. If the value of the price index is greater than one, then deflation occurs - a downward adjustment of nominal GDP.
Consumer Price Indices (CPI) are used to assess changes in inflation rates, the dynamics of the cost of living. The CPI measures the change in the average price level of a "basket" of goods and services typically consumed by an average urban family. The composition of the consumer basket is fixed at the level of the base year. This indicator is calculated according to the type of Laspeyres index, or price index with basic weights (a set of goods fixed in a base year:
Pi0 and Pi\" - the prices of the i-th good, respectively, in the base (0) current (t) period;
Qi° - the amount of the i-th good in the base period.
An index of this type does not take into account changes in the weight structure in the current period compared to the base one, which somewhat distorts the result.
The price index is an implicit GDP deflator, which is calculated according to the type of the Paasche index, that is, an index where the set of goods of the current period is used as weights:
Where is the amount of the i-th good in the current period.
If instead of Q we substitute the entire set of goods presented in GDP, and instead of P, respectively, their prices, then we get the GDP deflator. In fact, it is equal to the ratio of nominal GDP to real in the current period:
GDP deflator =
Unlike the Laspeyres index, the Paasche index underestimates the rise in the price level in the economy, since it does not take into account the dynamics of the weight structure, but fixes it already in the current period. If it is used to estimate the increase in the cost of living, then the effect on consumers of price increases for goods that were present in the base year set but not in the current year set will not be taken into account.
The Fisher index partly eliminates the shortcomings of the two previous indices by averaging their values:
pf = 
More on the topic 4. Macroeconomic indicators and how to measure them:
- Topic 8. National economy:\r\nresults and measurement.
- Inflation, its types and methods of measurement. Causes, mechanisms and socio-economic consequences of inflation
- Gross domestic product (GDP), gross national income (GNI). Counting Methods
- 8.3. Unemployment and inflation as a manifestation of macroeconomic instability and their socio-economic consequences
- 3. The results of reproduction at the macroeconomic level.
- 1. Macroeconomic indicators and methods for their measurement.
- Topic 5. "System of National Accounts and Main Macroeconomic Indicators"
- 3. RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN THE MAIN INDICATORS OF THE SYSTEM OF NATIONAL ACCOUNTS
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